Global warming is a subject which sharply divides nations of the world, so much so, that the present day non-absolute concept of sovereignty takes up the centre stage. Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was a remarkable agreement reached by the international community in 1997 at Kyoto, Japan, which made the industrialized nations (who are historically the biggest contributors of green house gases which causes global warming) cut emissions of their green house gases (GHGs) by 2012 to 5.2 percent below 1990 levels. Developing countries were encouraged to adapt to climate change by adopting environment-friendly technologies in their production processes. United States betrayal of the Kyoto Agreement is well known; when in February 2002 it refused to ratify it. In contrast, the European Union (EU) as a whole, and some countries such as Luxembourg, Germany, Great Britain in particular took lead in implementing their commitments under Kyoto treaty. The Kyoto Protocol requires the EU to cut its GHGs by 8 per cent from its 1990 level during 2008-2012. In fact, EU went beyond its commitment under Kyoto Protocol, and accepted a substantial emissions cut for itself, i.e. to reduce 20 percent of its GHGs by 2020.
The success or failure of the Kyoto Protocol is yet to be thoroughly ascertained. However, it is also to be noted that this only international agreement on climate change will expire in 2012. Therefore, the international community has made serious efforts in the recent past to renew its GHG mitigation commitment, and to adopt a climate change regime in post-2012 scenario. The main focus of the thirteenth Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC (COP 13) and third Conference of Parties serving aqs the Meeting of Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (COP/MOP 3) held at Bali, Indonesia in December 2007 was to lay down the future road map of the Kyoto Agreement in areas such as-mitigation, adaptation, transfer of technology and financing. The Bali Summit resulted in the issue of adaptation gaining predominance despite the climate change regime’s primary focus on mitigation. The decision to crate Adaptation Fund in Bonn, Germany bore fruit at the Bali COP/MOP 3. Bali Agreement referred to ‘nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing country parties in the context of sustainable development supported by technology and enabled by finance and capacity building in a measurable, reportable and verifiable manner’. This decision is different from the general obligation assumed by all countries including developing country parties. Bali Summit can be said to be one of the stepping-stones to the post-Kyoto climate change regime.
The recently concluded Conference in Copenhagen (COP 15) was convened to negotiate the new international agreement on climate change in post-Kyoto scenario beyond 2012. The significance of the Copenhagen meeting lies in the fact that an unprecedented number of heads of governments—almost 120 were present—decided to come at Copenhagen to provide political leadership and give the final push for the new ‘international climate order’. The outcome of the Copenhagen meeting may be seen as a failure, if we judge it on the basis of the high degree of optimism arising out of the presence of an unprecedented number of heads of government. The Copenhagen Accord—the substantial outcome of negotiations—does not impose actual and verifiable obligations or binding emissions targets in particular or finance contributions. In spite of this fact, there have been significant progress in at least three area—financing, deforestation and adaptation.
In such a complex background, this paper will attempt to capture the possible scenarios that may arise in the near future with respect to reaching upon a new international agreement on climate change for the post-Kyoto world by the international community.
The success or failure of the Kyoto Protocol is yet to be thoroughly ascertained. However, it is also to be noted that this only international agreement on climate change will expire in 2012. Therefore, the international community has made serious efforts in the recent past to renew its GHG mitigation commitment, and to adopt a climate change regime in post-2012 scenario. The main focus of the thirteenth Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC (COP 13) and third Conference of Parties serving aqs the Meeting of Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (COP/MOP 3) held at Bali, Indonesia in December 2007 was to lay down the future road map of the Kyoto Agreement in areas such as-mitigation, adaptation, transfer of technology and financing. The Bali Summit resulted in the issue of adaptation gaining predominance despite the climate change regime’s primary focus on mitigation. The decision to crate Adaptation Fund in Bonn, Germany bore fruit at the Bali COP/MOP 3. Bali Agreement referred to ‘nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing country parties in the context of sustainable development supported by technology and enabled by finance and capacity building in a measurable, reportable and verifiable manner’. This decision is different from the general obligation assumed by all countries including developing country parties. Bali Summit can be said to be one of the stepping-stones to the post-Kyoto climate change regime.
The recently concluded Conference in Copenhagen (COP 15) was convened to negotiate the new international agreement on climate change in post-Kyoto scenario beyond 2012. The significance of the Copenhagen meeting lies in the fact that an unprecedented number of heads of governments—almost 120 were present—decided to come at Copenhagen to provide political leadership and give the final push for the new ‘international climate order’. The outcome of the Copenhagen meeting may be seen as a failure, if we judge it on the basis of the high degree of optimism arising out of the presence of an unprecedented number of heads of government. The Copenhagen Accord—the substantial outcome of negotiations—does not impose actual and verifiable obligations or binding emissions targets in particular or finance contributions. In spite of this fact, there have been significant progress in at least three area—financing, deforestation and adaptation.
In such a complex background, this paper will attempt to capture the possible scenarios that may arise in the near future with respect to reaching upon a new international agreement on climate change for the post-Kyoto world by the international community.
*Abstract of my paper accepted for presentation during the International Conference on "Cooling the Earth: Tactics for Restoring Climate Order and Saving the Living Planet" to be held on 15-17 November, 2010 at G.B. Pant University of Agriculture & Technology, Pantnagar, Uttarakhand.
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